kibo
14 posts
msg #133191
- Ignore kibo |
12/12/2016 1:13:00 PM
How can we check if the correlation factor is the issue? (It doesn't look like that's the case here, I monitored it while vix went ups and down today still no clear signal which one is the correct signal)
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133192
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/12/2016 1:33:28 PM
He did not change the names of the entry and exit user variables - they are the same in both filters and that is why both signals are the same.
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jackmack
334 posts
msg #133193
- Ignore jackmack |
12/12/2016 1:36:49 PM
Are these not end of day signals?
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matt
15 posts
msg #133198
- Ignore matt |
12/12/2016 8:20:32 PM
Today's signals are sell long #4 and 6 signals, leaving long signals #2, 5, 7 open.
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tennisplayer2
210 posts
msg #133199
- Ignore tennisplayer2 |
12/12/2016 10:08:45 PM
Matt, thanks for the update.
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jackmack
334 posts
msg #133200
- Ignore jackmack |
12/13/2016 9:14:32 AM
Kevin_in_GA
What I meant to convey buy showing the entry signals is that you can either be in XIV or VXX.
And XIV has done pretty well over longer hold periods whereas VXX is typically shorter hold times.
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shillllihs
6,095 posts
msg #133201
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
12/13/2016 3:07:14 PM
From my experience, being long Xiv is the only sure play with this system or any other when market is in bull phase. This system does great when signals are short but not well on long signals.
Maybe it's due to high contango or contango in general. Maybe it's all opposite in backwardation.
Best way to play this is ride out Xiv when Vix short, & play Tvix long for 1 day when long.
Ideally, you want a system that signals when to be out of Xiv so you can constantly buy the dips
to stay long till bull run ends. Not sure if all that switches in bear market.
My point is, trying to catch Vix long is always tempting, but every attempt ends up sloppy.
Sometimes you catch it but much more often than not it fails and wipes out the sure and ez Xiv profits.
This all comes back to patience to sit out days and weeks, 16 months from Jan 2008 - May 2009, something humans seem to lack.
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matt
15 posts
msg #133207
- Ignore matt
modified |
12/13/2016 6:03:23 PM
Sold my shares of UVXY at $9.64 for net profit of $1032 after commissions.
Doing this live, I think this can be profitable going long, so far I found the trick is in keeping track of UVXY/VXX prices and not simply buying at open. I have lost out on more profits by starting with that principal only to see a fairly sharp dropoff in price not long after. But so far I have made money, this time it was a relatively modest return but my account value is still moving up which is the important thing.
So a ton of thanks again to Kevin for sharing this system. I am going to keep going with it and will report my results as they happen. Kevin, if you are ever in Pittsburgh, hit me up and I'll treat to beers and/or cocktails all night.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133209
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/13/2016 8:25:20 PM
I'll keep that offer in mind. Thanks!
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133210
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/13/2016 8:32:26 PM
New signal tonight to close out one ^VIX long trade (opened on 12/6) - currently up 4.35% but that is not really how the ETFs are doing. Contango level right now is actually quite high at slightly over 16%, and the ^VIX options expire next week, so the ETFs are really not tracking the ^VIX right now, and the ^VIX is going up as the SPX goes up, which is counter to what normally happens. My guess is that traders are hedging against the FOMC rate hike tomorrow.
Caution on opening any new positions right now.
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