| StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options) | << 1 ... 23 24 25 26 27 ... 31 >>Post Follow-up |
| 15minofPham 171 posts msg #142410 - Ignore 15minofPham |
2/22/2018 10:46:18 PM Follow the Money Play of the Day - WMT Premium of $1.6 million on 7,000 of the 5/18/18 $97.50 Call for $2.30 with stock at $93.09. Smart money thinks filling the gap from November will act as support. Breakeven of $99.80 would bring it back to the .50 Fib retracement of 1/29 high. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was 70-30 while bullish order sentiment was 77%, above its 30-day average of 63%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wednesday's spotlight - IWM, $5.8 million, 13,000 4/20/18 $154 Put for $4.48, ETF $153.15 Sideways action kept Put premium just in the green. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fourth straight day of afternoon fading put SINA in jeopardy of hitting -50% stop loss. Good news is CAT bucked the trend and had a daily bullish MACD cross-over. Barring a market meltdown, this pick should end up being a win. 
The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart. Rules: 1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium 2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday 3) Gain: Sell at +100%. Purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threatens to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93%, but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75% 4) Loss: Sell at -50% 5) Sell before earnings |
| 15minofPham 171 posts msg #142427 - Ignore 15minofPham |
2/23/2018 11:58:35 PM Follow the Money Play of the Day - A Premium of $5.5 million on 35,796 of the 3/16/18 $70 Put for $1.55 with stock at $70.58. An extremely aggressive bearish play with expiration only three weeks out . Smart money thinks the pullback from 2/15 will continue or somebody might know some bad news coming out. No one bets $5.5 million just for the heck of it. Do they? Total option volume Put/Call ratio was an astounding 99-1 while bullish order sentiment was a measly 3%, the lowest I've seen which needless to say is well below its 30-day average of 82%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Thursday's spotlight - WMT, $1.6 million, 7,000 5/18/18 $97.50 Call for $2.30, Stock $93.09 Didn't participate with the market afternoon rally as it's still digesting its earnings cratering. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Market broke a four day afternoon fading streak with an impressive rally which helped INTC back into green. CAT added to its cume while the IWM Put understanbly went into the red. 
The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart. Rules: 1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium 2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday 3) Gain: Sell at +100%. Purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threatens to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93%, but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75% 4) Loss: Sell at -50% 5) Sell before earnings |
| sumit.gargs@gmail.com 7 posts msg #142464 - Ignore sumit.gargs@gmail.com |
2/26/2018 10:47:51 AM @15minofPham, I am not seeing 35K of open interest for A, $70 Put, 3/16/18 expiration. Am I missing something? |
| 15minofPham 171 posts msg #142467 - Ignore 15minofPham |
2/26/2018 12:22:08 PM That is odd! I don't see a sell today of that magnitude so I'm not sure why it's not showing up in OI. |
| 15minofPham 171 posts msg #142476 - Ignore 15minofPham |
2/26/2018 10:42:43 PM Follow the Money Play of the Day - AMD Premium of $1.7 million on 41,000 of the 4/20/18 $11 Put for $0.43 with stock at $12.13. This was a total of two purchases, one for 20,000 and other for 21,000. Monthly chart shows sideways action for a year and it doesn't appear it's going to break out of this range anytime soon, even with this Put play. Total option volume Put/Call ratio was 65-35 while bullish order sentiment was 32%, below its 30-day average of 59%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Friday's spotlight - A, $5.5 million, 35,796 3/16/18 $70 Put for $1.55, Stock $70.58 Strange that OI is not showing the buy volume from Friday even though there wasn't a big sell today. Strength of market today kept it from falling further. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ EXEL is reporting earnings tonight so per our rule it had to be sold for a small loss even though expiration is still three months away. CARS is the only open position left from January. Good news is that both INTC and EEM (2/14) are guaranteed winners as they've hit our first profit target of 50%. I've added totals for each month and grand total. I also added a Gain/Loss dollar column to show minimum profits as we automatically sell at 100%. This is to simplify bookkeeping. In real life one could either let it run until a reversal candle or sell half at 100% then put a trailing stop. 
The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart. Rules: 1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium 2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday 3) Gain: Sell at +100%. Purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threatens to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93%, but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75% 4) Loss: Sell at -50% 5) Sell before earnings |
| WantingLittle 11 posts msg #142494 - Ignore WantingLittle |
2/27/2018 8:17:37 PM What is the most number of positions you've had open at any one point in time? |
| 15minofPham 171 posts msg #142497 - Ignore 15minofPham |
2/27/2018 9:33:07 PM I have between 20-25 at any given time. A mix of following the smart money, technical, weeklies & long term. |
| 15minofPham 171 posts msg #142498 - Ignore 15minofPham |
2/27/2018 10:07:45 PM Follow the Money Play of the Day - STZ Premium of $11.8 million on 8,820 of the 7/20/18 $220 Call for $13.47 with stock at $218.07. This was an aggregate of multiple purchases. Weekly chart shows sideways action over past 24 weeks with the win-loss record 12-12 over this time span so smart money thinks it's close to breaking out of this range. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was 81-19 while bullish order sentiment was 74%, slightly above its 30-day average of 69%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Monday's spotlight - AMD, $1.7 million, 41,000 4/20/18 $11 Put for $0.43, Stock $12.13 Nearly gave all gains back along with the market's fade, but not enough to help the Put. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Maddening constant fade in February doesn't give the Calls in the portfolio enough time for traction. Intraday sell rules came into play for INTC & EEM. The former hit above +100% in the morning then faded so it was sold. The latter gapped down at the open forcing a sell at +23% since it was above +50% the previous day. 
The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart. Rules: 1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium 2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday 3) Gain: Sell at +100%. The purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threaten to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93% but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75% 4) Loss: Sell at -50% 5) Sell before earnings |
| 15minofPham 171 posts msg #142512 - Ignore 15minofPham |
2/28/2018 10:17:59 PM Follow the Money Play of the Day - M Premium of $2.9 million on 9,569 of the 5/18/18 $30 Put for $3.05 with stock at $29.31. This was an aggregate of multiple purchases. Gapped up on earnings yesterday but immediately faded after hitting a high of $31.04. It tried to close above $30 today but again thwarted. Smart money thinks third time won't be the charm either. Breakeven of $26.95 brings it to the low of the body candle of 2/26. Interesting that total option volume Put/Call ratio was only 34-66 while bullish order sentiment was 37%, well below its 30-day average of 64%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tuesday's spotlight - STZ, $11.8 million, 8,820 7/20/18 $220 Call for $13.47, Stock $218.07 Faded along with the market which made the Call go into the red. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Another day, another fade. CAT took the brunt today as it went from +44% to -10.50%. The M.O. lately is to fade at resistance be it short or long term. 
The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart. Rules: 1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium 2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday 3) Gain: Sell at +100%. The purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threaten to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93% but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75% 4) Loss: Sell at -50% 5) Sell before earnings |
| 15minofPham 171 posts msg #142543 - Ignore 15minofPham |
3/1/2018 9:56:17 PM Follow the Money Play of the Day - AMD Premium of $6.3 million on 110,242 of the 4/11/18 $11 Put for $.60 with stock at $58.58. This was an aggregate of multiple purchases. Smart money once again is picking on AMD as this is the second time (other was 2/26) it appears in the portfolio. Hundreds of purchases were at the Ask or above today. It closed at the 50 DMA, but clearly big boys think this is just a temporary rest stop. Total option volume Put/Call ratio was 83-17 while bullish order sentiment was a measly 5%, well below its 30-day average of 58%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wednesday's spotlight - M, $2.9 million, 9569 5/18/18 $30 Put for $3.05, Stock $29.31 Held up surprisingly well in lieu of another market meltdown which could spell trouble for the Put when the market rally. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Another day of violent selling was too much for WMT as it hit the -50% stop loss. SINA is a hair length above the same level and should falter tomorrow in any market weakness. Needless to say, Puts in the portfolio are reaping the benefits, especially A which is now at +80%. It's guaranteed a win at +75% if it pulls back tomorrow. 
The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart. Rules: 1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium 2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday 3) Gain: Sell at +100%. The purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threaten to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93% but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75% 4) Loss: Sell at -50% 5) Sell before earnings |
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